Due info odierne che vanno nella direzione della mia tesi: che la rete "vuole" essere neutrale perché è la consume electronics a dettare legge e aumenteranno sempre più i modi per bypassare il controllo della fruzione che gli operatori vorrebbero applicare (tra cui la packet inspection) per poter (loro) vendere i film.

Prima news: in UK il 22% delle trasmissioni di sky viene time-shifted e un quarto degli utenti ha un PVR/DVR (personal Video Recorder/Digital video recorder), in anticipo di circa 3 anni sui programmi dell’azienda.

Questo risponde anche all’obiezione "ci vorrà una generazione per cambiare le abitudini" che alcuni mi facevano quando scrissi il post su come funzionano le cose a casa mia.

Link: The British Like to Control TV With Their DVRs, Too.

An announcement from British Sky Broadcasting last week that it had sold more than two million digital video recorders demonstrated the international appeal of a technology that wrests control of television schedules out of the hands of broadcasters and into the homes of viewers.

With digital recorders in more than 20 percent of households …

The company’s stated goal — putting the new boxes into a quarter of its 8.3 million households by 2009 — should be passed this year…

ovviamente inizia a porsi il problema dell’ad-skipping, ovvero del salto della pubblicità, cosa che spingerà sempre di più la pubblicità ad essere embedded nei contenuti, a parte le microinterruzioni o i programmi live.

During playback, viewers can easily fast-forward through commercials, a feature that alarms advertisers and broadcasters that derive the bulk of their revenue from advertising… But channels that show movies or entertainment, rather than news or sports, are more heavily affected.

Between 9 p.m. and 10 p.m.,…22 percent of shows were time-shifted, as viewers watched them later or recorded a second program as they watched their first choice immediately.

Sky has tried to reassure advertisers, saying that while DVR users might skip some ads (it did not specify what percentage), they end up watching more television over all — 2 hours and 26 minutes of television a day, compared with 2 hours and 7 minutes for Sky subscribers without the DVR — increasing their exposure to commercial messages. While Sky, whose largest shareholder is the News Corporation, generates much of its revenue from subscriptions, it also makes money from advertising, so it has to be careful not to appear to overplay the benefit of skipping ads, analysts say.

ve la dico io la percentuale di pubblicità che non vediamo in una casa come la mia: oltre il 95%..

certo, casa mia non fa testo (ancora per un po’).

Da una parte, gli operatori di TLC che vorrebbero entrarci, dall’altra, i broadcaster che non vorrebbero uscire, dall’altra, i produttori di PC che vorrebbero estendersi in salotto (con mediacenter o itunes), ma chi c’e’ già fortemente, é il produttore di console di videogiochi:

Link: Console Sales Beat Goals, Makers’ Early Reports Say.

Sony said Sunday night that between the debut of the PlayStation 3 in
late November and the end of the year it had shipped one million of the
consoles to retailers in the United States. It said it still expects to
ship six million consoles worldwide by the end of March.
… Analysts had expected Sony to ship four
million to five million consoles. …

Microsoft, which introduced its Xbox 360 in November
2005, said Sunday that by year’s end it had shipped 10.4 million of the
consoles worldwide. That is 400,000 more than Microsoft had estimated
it would ship over the last year. …

The industry had another early indicator last Thursday, when GameStop,
a video game retail chain, said that its sales for the nine weeks ended
Dec. 30 were up 23 percent over the same period a year earlier
.

Quando i giochi si fanno duri, bisogna decidere quale gioco giocare.

Il gioco dell’entertainment é governato da titolari dei diritti (ad un estremo della catena del valore) e da consumer electronics (all’estremo opposto).

Questi due stanno venendo ai ferri corti e chi ci sta in mezzo (o chi ci vorrebbe andare) rischia lacrime e sangue (target mancati e svalutazioni), IMHO.