non avevo avuto il tempo di guardare un report della banca JPMorgan sulle prospettive delle evoluzioni delle reti.
Questo è l'executive summary (il riassunto stracompresso)
- VDSL threatens competition: VDSL (fibre to the street) is expensive for incumbents, but difficult for competitors to replicate. In our view, unless regulation is supportive, in some markets VDSL may eventually destroy today’s unbundling business model.
Il VDSL è una minaccia alla concorrenza, potrebbe distruggere il modello di business attuale basato sull'unbundling (levate il "potrebbe", ndr.)
- But US-style deregulation unlikely: In contrast to the US, because of much weaker cable competition, we believe most European incumbent fibre will be regulated. The question is, will this be effective, and how many unbundlers will survive? The answers will differ market by market. However, we think many European unbundlers are well positioned to take the next step: FTTH.
La rete nuova molto probabilmente sarà regolamentata in europa perche' non c'e' la vable tv. gli operatori in unbndling sono ben posizionati per fare FTTH (stride con il punto precedente, ndr.)
- Worse, European competitors can escalate to FTTH: We believe FTTH (fibre to the home) is becoming a feasible strategy for competitors in many of Europe’s metropolitan markets, and could be accelerated by pro-active fibre regulation (France) or potentially insufficient VDSL regulation (Germany). Where competitors deploy FTTH, the incumbent’s copper network is devalued, and the net impact of the fibre battle is likely to be negative.
In molti mercati metropolitani FTTH puo' essere sostenuta (come Fasteweb a milano. e gli altri ? e il digital divide ? e un paese sparso come il nostro ? ndr.)
- Major drivers differ widely: Fibre will push markets in very different directions, depending on factors such as the scope of the incumbent strategy, its access network topology, the market’s IP TV potential, the competitive landscape, politics and regulation.
ci sono molti driver: dalla TV alla topolofia, alla strategia, all'orografia/paesaggio, alla politica..
- Access separation complicates the picture: Functional network separation (like BT Openreach) seems positive on balance, but our analysis shows the limitations of some of the alleged benefits, and we believe these vary materially among operators.
la separazione funzionale della rete sembra positiva, ma la nostra analisi dimostra che i benefici sono limitati e molto variabili tra diversi operatori.
