The long tale ?

THE LONG TALE?.

Although "The Long Tail" discusses the waning prominence of hits, Anderson would prefer to look past the top of the head of hit singles at a larger group of tracks to gauge broad shifts in demand. "In short, this isn't enough data to draw any proper 'Long Tail' conclusions about," he wrote in an e-mail, "since it doesn't use Head and Tail the way the theory does." Since the publication of "The Long Tail," some studies have confirmed the book's thesis, while others have cast doubt on it. In a 2008 paper, Harvard Business School associate professor Anita Elberse found that hit titles still dominated sales even though some consumers were venturing further down the tail. This year, two researchers at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, Tom F. Tan and Serguei Netessine, examined Netflix user data from 2000 to 2005 and found that new titles are appearing faster than customers can discover them. Perhaps more surprisingly, a study by PRS for Music chief economist Will Page and BigChampagne CEO Eric Garland found that the demand for songs on file-sharing services—which offer users almost unlimited choice—closely mirrors that of purchased tracks. Only 5% of songs accounted for 80% of downloads, resulting in what the authors called a "hit-heavy, skinny-tail distribution."

Comments

[Scritto da: gallodidio]

Ho avuto tempo solo ora di andare a trovare il paper che mi era venuto in mente quando ho letto questo post.

E' chiaro, e facilmente spiegabile. Nel caso dei contenuti video, "the traditionally prime-time, mass market hits will concentrate even more viewing as people are no longer constrained by schedules and no longer need to choose between shows during prime time."

Del resto Eric Schmidt dice (citato nel paper) “Although the tail is very interesting .... You better have a head ... It’s a 90/10 model ... you need both a head and a tail to make the model work”

E' un paper che abbiamo pubblicato tra le Perspectives di Value Partners a Luglio dell'anno scorso, col titolo "Harnessing the value of VOD" e parla, tra le altre cose, dell'impatto della long tail sulle abitudini di consumo (per poi ragionare sulla questione chiave, quella della monetizzazione e le problematiche che ne derivano per gli attori dell'industry). Se interessa lo trovi qui http://www.valuepartners.com/VP_pubbl_pdf/PDF_Comunicati/Media%20e%20Eventi/2009/value-partners-HarnessingTheValueOfVodElwesChua090728.pdf